Thursday, May 22, 2008

Paint the White House "Barack"

"When you win, sometimes you really loseAnd sometimes when you lose, you really win"
Rosie Perez in White Men Can't Jump

In the interest of intellectual honesty, I want to start by saying that the following words are not written with any formal training in politics. However, they are rooted in 29 years that I've spent on Earth as a black man.

Barack Obama will be the Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee! I repeat, Barack Obama will be the Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee.

Is anyone else suspicious of Hillary's refusal to concede victory? I understand that they have a particular number of delegates that each person has to get to offically capture the nomination. 2,026 . But nobody believes that Hillary has a snow ball's chance at getting to 2025.

So it sounds like Barack is golden right? As they've been calling him, the presumptive nominee, right? Well let me equate this to sports for you. Right now, its about 2 minutes left in the game, and Barack is ahead by 2 touchdowns, and has the ball. Hillary is out of timeouts. So Barack should just be able to kneel his way to the victory.

Well Obama fans, prepare yourselves for a stunning defeat. Here's what my gut says.
The final primaries are on June 3rd, and in all likelyhood, neither Hillary nor Barack will have the necessary 2026. Which opens up what is called a brokered convention.
Well for those of you who are politically unaware, that is where I suspect that Hillary Clinton and her minions will put on the fight of her life. And I believe she will emegre victorious.

Here's why.

As hot as Barack was at one point, winning 10 consecutive elections between February 9th and February 19th, those contests will not help him at all. The states that will decide his fate will have been Pennsylvania, Kentucky and West Virginia.

Barack has lost in those 3 states by what could be considered a large number. WV and KY by around 30%. Many of the pundits say that middle class white voters went overwhelmingly for Hillary, partly as a consequence for the whole Jeremiah Wright controversy.

However, it will be the results from those states in which Hillary will mount her vigorous comeback. She will argue that working class whites won't vote for Barack in the General Election, virtually gift wraping the Presidency to John McCain, should the party go through with nominating Barack. (If this were sports, lets just say that Obama fumbled the ball, and Hillary recovered and ran it back for a touchdown. She's still down 7 though).

She will find some way to convince the delegates that blacks will vote for Barack, even if its as the VP. Maybe not in as large a number as in the primaries, but in far larger numbers than in typical elections. (Ok sports fans, Hillary just recovered the onside kick).

The last thing that I believe will take place is that there will be some serious arm twisting being done by Hillary and the rest of the Clinton Machine. The likes of which, I don't believe that Barack will be able to withstand. I believe they will find a way to convince him that its just not his time yet. Sit back and be VP for 8 years. You'll be able to learn, gain experience and in 8 years, you'll be primed for the White House. Hell, he'll even have the blessing and backing of the Clinton Machine.(And that's it, the Hail Mary touchdown pass with the 2 point conversion).
Hillary Clinton wins in dramatic fashion!

Now I want to go on record and say that I predicted more than a year ago that the Democratic ticket would wind up being Hillary-Obama. So maybe this scenario would just be fufilling my own prediction. And there were times that I thought Barack might pull it off, hell I voted for him. However, slowly but surely, Hillary's hanging on. I can't call that a coincidence. Can You?


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